NHL Draft Lottery – Open Thread

It’s the day we’ve all been waiting for. Today we find out if the hockey gods are still in “lol” mode when it comes to our beloved Maple Leafs, or if maybe, just maybe, a new day in Leaf Land has dawned, and all of us can finally put to death the pessimistic disposition that has plagued us for the past decade+.

OK, I admit that’s probably a bit dramatic….regardless of where the Leafs end up picking (the worst they can pick is 4th), we’re going to get a solid player for the rebuild. But finally finishing 30th overall and NOT ending up with Matthews, Laine or Puljujarvi? I can hardly wrap my mind around it. Yet I find myself braced for it…it actually could happen.

As you can tell, I’m currently experiencing a bit of a crisis of fandom. Trying so hard to hope for the best, but constantly pulled back toward the relative safety of setting expectations low. This has been the meta-narrative of my entire experience as a Leafs fans. And it’s not about to change just because we have a bunch of solid prospects, enough draft picks for two teams, a killer management team, and arguably the best coaching staff on planet earth. Goddammit…now I’m optimistic again. Is this all really happening???

Alright, back to the topic at hand. The Draft Lottery. Here’s how it all breaks down as far as odds and shit (via Wikipedia):

Complete draft position odds
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Toronto 20.0% 17.5% 15.0% 47.5%
Edmonton 13.5% 13.1% 12.5 % 35.2% 25.8%
Vancouver 11.5% 11.4% 11.3% 14.2% 37.8% 13.8%
Columbus 9.5% 9.7% 9.8% 3.1% 27.3% 33.2% 7.4%
Calgary 8.5% 8.8% 9.0% 9.1% 35.5% 25.5 % 3.7%
Winnipeg 7.5% 7.8% 8.2% 17.5% 39.3% 17.9% 1.7%
Arizona 6.5% 6.9% 7.2% 27.9% 39.1% 11.7% 0.8%
Buffalo 6.0% 6.4% 6.8% 39.2% 34.8% 6.6% 0.3%
Montreal 5.0% 5.4% 5.6% 51.8% 28.6% 3.4% 0.1%
Colorado 3.5% 3.8% 4.2% 64.0% 22.8% 1.6% 0.02%
New Jersey 3.0% 3.3% 3.6% 73.6% 15.9% 0.6% 0.003%
Ottawa 2.5% 2.7% 3.0 % 82.3% 9.3% 0.1%
Carolina 2.0% 2.2% 2.5% 90.1% 3.2%
Boston 1.0% 1.1% 1.3% 96.6%

So let’s look at this a little bit more closely. The Maple Leafs currently have the best odds of every team to pick 1st, at 20%. That means they also have an 80% chance of not picking first…so they likely won’t pick there, right? But use the same logic for every other team and you’ll see that it looks even worse for them. You end up right back where you started. Nobody has a better shot at the 1st overall pick than the Leafs. The odds are worse for every other team. It’s not rocket science. But it’s still only 20%, so….

You might say the most likely event is for the Leafs to pick 4th, since there’s a 47.5% chance of that happening. But there’s also a 52.5% chance they pick 1-3, so, that’s actually the most likely outcome.

Basically, who the ef knows how it’s going to play out? (besides Bettman)

Moving on from that, let’s take a look how the top 30 is shaking out (courtesy of ISS Hockey).


“And the first overall pick goes to…”

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