Maple Leafs Trade Deadline Early Primer: Who Stays, Who Goes?

With a mere 18 games to play before the February 29th NHL Trade Deadline, the Maple Leafs, currently sitting 27th overall and 30th in ROWs, appear poised to be sellers in a big way. With that in mind, let’s take a look at who the most likely candidates are to be shipped out, and what a realistic return might be.

The UFAs:

Michael Grabner

Pos Age AAV Gm G A P P60 (5v5) CF% (5v5) TOI/Gm
L 27 3 40 6 5 11 1.17 48.18 13.78

The good: Speedy, skilled winger. Point production seems to be trending back in the right direction. Great on the PK.
The bad: Inconsistent scoring.
Likelihood of being moved: 85%
What’s he worth? 3rd-4th round pick


Shawn Matthias

Pos Age AAV Gm G A P P60 (5v5) CF% (5v5) TOI/Gm
L/C 27 2.3 41 3 10 13 1.53 51.03 12.88

The good: Great on the forecheck. Big body that can play a cycle game and battle in the corners. Drives the net.
The bad: Lacks finish.
Likelihood of being moved: 85%
What’s he worth? 4th-5th round pick


PA Parenteau

Pos Age AAV Gm G A P P60 (5v5) CF% (5v5) TOI/Gm
R 32 1.5 42 11 11 22 1.63 51.31 15.48

The good: Solid possession numbers. Dangerous presence on the PP.
The bad: Not much to complain about.
Likelihood of being moved: 95%
What’s he worth? 2nd round pick or a 3rd + a prospect


Brad Boyes

Pos Age AAV Gm G A P P60 (5v5) CF% (5v5) TOI/Gm
R 33 0.7 35 5 8 13 1.93 55.59 11.55

The good: Possession beast. Leads the team in P/60. Smart player who can make a big play at the right time. Very useful depth player.
The bad: Actual point totals leave a lot to be desired. Not enough opportunity?
Likelihood of being moved: 90%
What’s he worth? 4th round pick


Rich Clune

Pos Gm Age AAV G A P P60 (5v5) CF% (5v5) TOI/Gm
L 2 28 0.575 0 0 0 0 54.55 8.09

The good: Character player who’s overcome a lot of personal adversity. Solid mentor for the younger players. Brings energy.
The bad: Offensively limited. Has the tendency to take bad penalties.
Likelihood of being moved: 10%
What’s he worth? Future considerations.


Roman Polak

Pos Age AAV Gm G A P P60 (5v5) CF% (5v5) TOI/Gm
D 29 2.75 40 0 9 9 0.87 48.78 19.11

The good: Big bodied, physical dman with some snarl in his game. Seems to be fitting into Babcock’s system nicely.
The bad: Questionable decision-making at times with and without the puck.
Likelihood of being moved: 95%
What’s he worth? 3rd-4th round pick.


James Reimer

Pos Age AAV GP GS W L OT Sv% GAA SO
G 27 2.3 20 18 7 7 4 0.934 2.03 0

The good: Wrestled the number 1 duties away from Jonathan Bernier and was on fire until sidelined by injuries.
The bad: Style isn’t pretty (but it is effective). Makes himself have to work harder than necessary due to lack of rebound control.
Likelihood of being moved: 65%
What’s he worth? 2nd round pick + a prospect.


 

The RFAs:

Nazem Kadri

Pos Age AAV Gm G A P P60 (5v5) CF% (5v5) TOI/Gm
C 24 4.1 42 8 14 22 1.25 51.75 18.63

The good: Quite possibly the Leafs’ best player this season. Shot machine who creates plays and is responsible on the defensive side of the puck. Loves to dish out big hits, and draws penalties like nobody’s business.
The bad: Point production early in the season was abysmal (despite doing the right things), creating more questions as to what exactly his ceiling is. Wants to be a number 1 center but likely slots in as a number 2 on an good team.
Likelihood of being moved: 15%
What’s he worth? 1st + solid prospect


Josh Leivo

Pos Age AAV Gm G A P P60 (5v5) CF% (5v5) TOI/Gm
R/L 22 0.792 2 0 0 0 0 64.52 11.14

The good: Strong winger with an NHL shot. Plays a bit like Joffrey Lupul.
The bad: Seemed to be dropping down the depth chart until a rebound season in the AHL this year, but how much of that can be credited to William Nylander?
Likelihood of being moved: <5%
What’s he worth? Comparable prospect


Peter Holland

Pos Age AAV Gm G A P P60 (5v5) CF% (5v5) TOI/Gm
C 24 0.775 37 7 10 17 1.02 50.97 13.88

The good: Big center who can skate and make plays.
The bad: Consistency is an issue. Found himself in Babcock’s doghouse early in the season, but has since rebounded and solidified his spot on in the lineup.
Likelihood of being moved: 10%
What’s he worth? 2nd round pick


Morgan Rielly

Pos Age AAV Gm G A P P60 (5v5) CF% (5v5) TOI/Gm
D 21 0.894 42 5 15 20 0.9 48.38 21.92

The good: Elite skater with a “sky is the limit” ceiling. Will be the Leafs’ top Dman for many years (if he isn’t already).
The bad: Seems to be a bit tentative this season, but that will change once Babcock gives him more of a green light offensively and more PP minutes.
Likelihood of being moved: 0.1%
What’s he worth? More than GMs are willing to give.


Martin Marincin

Pos Age AAV Gm G A P P60 (5v5) CF% (5v5) TOI/Gm
D 23 0.7 29 0 0 0 0 54.61 12.6

The good: Solid possession numbers…
The bad: Very limited offensively. Tendency to make the occasional bad giveaway.
Likelihood of being moved: 15%
What’s he worth? 5th-6th round pick


Frank Corrado

Pos Age AAV Gm G A P P60 (5v5) CF% (5v5) TOI/Gm
D 22 0.632 4 0 1 1 1.53 53.33 9.93

The good: Physical Dman with a good first pass. Top 4 upside.
The bad: Can’t get into the lineup.
Likelihood of being moved: <5%
What’s he worth? Comparable prospect


 

The Other Guys:

Joffrey Lupul

Pos Age AAV Gm G A P P60 (5v5) CF% (5v5) TOI/Gm
LR 31 5.25 37 9 3 12 0.81 45.67 15.02

Contract expires: 2018
The good:
 Is still dangerous offensively…sometimes. Good locker room presence.
The bad: Injury-prone with diminishing offensive output and a large contract. Bad combo.
Likelihood of being moved: 5%
What’s he worth? Negative value


James van Riemsdyk

Pos Age AAV Gm G A P P60 (5v5) CF% (5v5) TOI/Gm
L 26 4.25 40 14 15 29 1.7 54.55 17.95

Contract expires: 2018
The good:
 Really has come into his own this season as an all-around top-6 winger. Great combination of size, speed and skill.
The bad: At times could be more aggressive on the defensive side of the puck.
Likelihood of being moved: 20%
What’s he worth? 1st round pick + 2nd round pick + prospect


Tyler Bozak

Pos Age AAV Gm G A P P60 (5v5) CF% (5v5) TOI/Gm
C 29 4.2 38 9 18 27 1.73 51.44 17.59

Contract expires: 2018
The good:
 Has shown he can still produce sans Phil Kessel. Huge improvement in underlying numbers this season.
The bad: Will never be anything more than a number 2 center (if that can be considered a bad thing).
Likelihood of being moved: 75%
What’s he worth? 2nd round pick


Leo Komarov

Pos Age AAV Gm G A P P60 (5v5) CF% (5v5) TOI/Gm
L/R 28 2.95 42 15 14 29 1.77 53.02 17.67

Contract expires: 2018
The good:
 He hits, he draws penalties, he scores…Uncle Leo does it all.
The bad: Is his offensive output sustainable?
Likelihood of being moved: 45%
What’s he worth? 1st round pick


Daniel Winnik

Pos Age AAV Gm G A P P60 (5v5) CF% (5v5) TOI/Gm
C 30 2.25 39 3 8 11 1.48 44.48 13.59

Contract expires: 2017
The good:
 Versatile player who can play up and down in the lineup. Solid veteran presence.
The bad: Limited offensive impact.
Likelihood of being moved: 15%
What’s he worth? 4th-5th round pick


Byron Froese

Pos Age AAV Gm G A P P60 (5v5) CF% (5v5) TOI/Gm
C 24 .575 32 1 3 4 0.76 46.81 13.05

Contract expires: 2017
The good:
 Hard-working, physical center, who brings energy every shift.
The bad: Unclear if offensive output in the AHL will ever translate to the NHL.
Likelihood of being moved: 5%
What’s he worth? 6th round pick


Dion Phaneuf

Pos Age AAV Gm G A P P60 (5v5) CF% (5v5) TOI/Gm
D 30 7 42 3 17 20 0.84 51.7 22.29

Contract expires: 2021
The good:
 One of those “so overrated he’s become underrated” sort of players. Gets his share of points and dishes out big hits. Booming (albeit inaccurate) shot from the point.Has really benefitted from Babcock’s presence in the org.
The bad: Lacks footspeed and creativity. On a downward trend at this point in his career.
Likelihood of being moved: 15%
What’s he worth? A bad contract with lesser term.


Jake Gardiner

Pos Age AAV Gm G A P P60 (5v5) CF% (5v5) TOI/Gm
D 25 4.05 39 3 11 14 0.54 53.92 20.04

Contract expires: 2019
The good:
 Smooth-skating, with solid transition game and an underrated defensive presence. Not getting nearly enough credit for what he brings to the team. And he’s still improving.
The bad: Occasional brain cramp.
Likelihood of being moved: 10%
What’s he worth? 1st round pick + prospect


Matt Hunwick

Pos Age AAV Gm G A P P60 (5v5) CF% (5v5) TOI/Gm
D 30 1.2 41 0 5 5 0.25 45.95 22.22

Contract expires: 2017
The good:
 “Team guy” who works hard on and off the ice. A Babcock favourite.
The bad: Limited offense and questionable decision-making.
Likelihood of being moved: 15%
What’s he worth? 4th-5th round pick


Jonathan Bernier

Pos Age AAV GP GS W L OT Sv% GAA SO
G 27 4.15 20 19 6 11 3 0.896 3.14 2

Contract expires: 2017
The good:
 Very poised in the net. Relies on solid positioning. At times has shown he can be a quality starting goalie.
The bad: Let’s in too many bad goals. Gets rattled easily.
Likelihood of being moved: 25%
What’s he worth? 3th round pick

All data via war-on-ice.com.


Here’s what it the Maple Leafs draft pick status currently looks like:

2016 Draft Picks (11)

(Info via GeneralFanager.com)

Round 1  

Round 2  

Round 3  

Round 4  

Round 5  

Round 6  

Round 7  

Conditions:
*If Pittsburgh qualifies for the 2016 postseason, Toronto will receive 2016 PIT 1 and the Penguins will receive 2016 PIT 2. Should Pittsburgh miss the 2016 playoffs, Toronto will INSTEAD receive 2017 PIT 1; and Pittsburgh will receive 2017 TOR 2. If the Penguins were to miss the postseason the next two years, Toronto would receive 2017 PIT 2 and Pittsburgh would not receive a draft pick.
**2016 STL 6 becomes 2016 STL 4 if St. Louis Blues advance to the 2014-15 Stanley Cup Finals and Olli Jokinen plays in one of the Stanley Cup final games.

Related Posts