In the apparent renaissance of enlightened hockey fandom in Toronto, many have understandably cheered the long overdue acceptance of advanced stats into this city’s mainstream consciousness and, more importantly, into the fibre of the Leafs’ management core. No thinking fan would argue the critical importance of any organization using every piece of data available to them to extract whatever competitive advantages possible. I believe we can finally put the basic debate about the merits of analytics to bed. I myself have come to appreciate the vast array of stats available to me as well as the hard work done by many to compile this data for our own consumption. As a hockey fan it provides an interesting layer of analysis that has never before been so widely available in our sport.
There are however, some personally disturbing trends that have surfaced in our evolution as informed armchair analysts of the game. It appears that knowledge of advanced stats has not only (justifiably) marginalized the relevance of inferior “legacy” statistics (ie. plus/minus, GAA and yes even goals and assists), but has also given rise to the widespread dismissal, if not UNEQUIVOCAL CONDEMNATION of traditional, immeasurable traits that we’ve long regarded as staples of a good player or team…the traits that made us all but canonize Wendel and Dougie.
A hockey litmus test if you will….read the following list:
- Character
- Heart
- Grit
- Compete
- Intimidation
- Leadership
Take note of your reaction…
For many, these buzzwords now do little else but draw chuckles, induce gagging or bring on an irresistible urge to sarcastically hash-tag them in a tweet to your favourite blogger.
Even if one DOES hold these qualities in any regard, when interacting with certain stat people (or their loyal minions) in social media, there’s a chance they’ve become a LOT more cautious or, worse yet..apologetic if and when they refer to “that which cannot be quantified”. Flagrant or unsubstantiated use of such low-brow terminology in a hockey debate will, after all, likely get you labelled as a mouth-breather, mitten-stringer or other such life form.
A brief history of our evolution: Relatively early in Leaf Nation’s journey into widespread familiarity and comfort with analytics, it seemed that a few far reaching voices at the far ends of the pro & anti-stat spectrum, whether intentionally or not, dictated a painful and often radical path to where we are now. The will of some to stubbornly dig their heels in and not bend at all to the opposing “faction” resulted in many being encouraged to pick a side, and seldom stray from its inherent fundamentals.
These hard line stances often left little room for the many open minded moderates to methodically form their own views and strike whatever balance they saw fit.
Either you accept all advanced stats as gospel and unilaterally reject the silly notion of intangibles or you are branded a paste-eater who willfully chooses to remain ignorant and is unworthy of consideration.
Either you reject the validity of analytics in favour of good old fashioned heart & soul eye tests or you’re a basement dwelling, spread-sheet loving geek who’s never played the game or kissed a girl.
These hard line stances often left little room for the many open minded moderates to methodically form their own views and strike whatever balance they saw fit.
I openly admit to having strong roots in the “old-fashioned” school of hockey and to a great degree, still maintain those views. I like my teams to be equipped with the toughness to play a heavy, hard hitting game, I respect players who stick up for one another, I love guys who I’ve seen thrive in high pressure situations and yes, my hockey includes guys who’ll drop’em at a moment’s notice. I’d like to state for the record that, surprisingly, my views DO NOT preclude an ability to comprehend or appreciate the value of advanced stats, nor does it mean that I wish for a bottom 6 of slow, possession-killing brawlers while sneering at highly skilled players who lack size or the ability to engage physically.
On more than a few Twitter encounters which I (naively) walked into in the past, I was amazed at the tone to which my hockey views were met. The overall inference was that given my affinity for certain “traditional” hockey qualities, I was clearly too stupid to know that speed, skating, hands and vision are actually factors that make up a good player and….stay with me here…an abundance of these SKILLED players contributes towards creating a team good enough to dictate play (as substantiated by possession metrics) and win more often.. imagine that!
In my humble opinion, even the most ardent advanced stats proponent, in a comfortable (and possibly sedated) environment would concur that elements of the aforementioned intangibles are needed on any successful team. The ability to fight through checks, ward off opponents invading your crease, re-gaining lost pucks, willingness to create scoring chances from tough parts of the o-zone etc. all require an element of traits which have been loosely termed grit, character etc..
Similarly, even the most uninformed and stubborn traditionalist would never deny that we need players with fundamental skills which, more than ever, are paramount in deciding championships at both the league and international levels…That we need players who, when on the ice, have a positive impact on their team’s ability to gain and retain control of the puck, enable line mates to do the same and ultimately create more scoring chances than their opposition..that we require strong possession players who can be identified with the help of Corsi & Fenwick metrics, examining zone starts, measuring quality of competition etc..
In having witnessed and lived through Leaf Nation’s analytics civil war pretty much from the onset, I began to notice a change this offseason. I found that many former hard-core traditionalists began referring to advanced stats while arguing their love or hate of a player. This is a good thing…knowledge is power. I also started noticing that these former “knuckle-draggers” and some of the same bloggers they used to dislike began engaging in mature hockey debate with meaningful, non-confrontational exchanges. This is also a good thing. This slow but significant growth in knowledge and recent shift in fan interaction is a sign that the fight to refute analytics is largely over…that we’ve reached the point where we all accept the world is round.
What remains are debates over the relevance and context with which specific metrics should be used to analyze specific qualities of players or teams. (ie. Are we happy with Gardiner’s game for posting good possession numbers yet committing 2 horribly lazy turnovers?) Hopefully these debates – and they will be long ones – take place with a lot less vitriol and aggression than we’ve seen in the past. I personally believe that too much of the childish bickering was over mere semantics – the buzzwords we use to argue our points and our tolerance of the terminology used to counter them. I would hope that, now that most of us are on the same page (at least reading from the same book), we can get back to arguing hockey without the need to constantly belittle “Corsi” or “Character” in efforts to emphasize what “side” we’re on. I’ve personally grown tired of the same narratives, veiled or not, permeating into every debate.
To the mouth-breathers: Denying the benefit of analytics makes you look ignorant..stop with the stupid “Corsi” jokes.
To the stat-geeks: It’s still a physical game..denying the importance of character, heart or any other word describing BALLS is no less idiotic..stop with the cheesy “truculence” jokes.
I guess the long-winded point I’m making is this:
I hope that we soon see the end of this stats vs eye-ball battle.
I hope anti-stat people recognize that being open to data that may shed new light on your analysis of players doesn’t make you wrong or stupid.
I hope that pro-stat people recognize that intangibles are now and will always be regarded VERY highly by smart people who’ve devoted their lives to the game.
Most of all, I hope we can win the Goddamn Cup in my lifetime.
Cheers.
Article source: http://newlifelessons.tumblr.com/post/100887882486
